Betting on Everything: Inside the Prediction Market Boom

Prediction markets are everywhere. From sports and elections to questions about interest rates, regulation, and the future of the economy. Even entertainment is getting into the game: now trading, the Big Brother Season 28 winner.

After accurately predicting the 2024 U.S. presidential election, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity, generating billions in trades. But their rise also raises important questions about gambling, insider trading and perverse incentives.

In this episode, Yael and Mike speak with prediction market expert Robin Hanson, an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, about how these markets work, who influences them, and what challenges lie ahead. Whether you’re a business leader, policymaker or simply curious, you won’t want to miss this one.

Look for new episodes of Good Disruption on the first Monday of each month.

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About the Expert

Yael Grushka-Cockayne

David M. LaCross Dean & Charles A. Abbott Professor of Business Administration

Grushka-Cockayne’s research and teaching activities focus on decision analysis, forecasting, project management and behavioral decision-making.

As an expert in the area of project management, she has served as a consultant to international firms in the aerospace and transportation industries. She is the secretary/treasurer of INFORMS Decision Analysis Society, a U.Va. Excellence in Diversity fellow and member the Project Management Institute.

B.Sc., Ben-Gurion University; M.Sc., London School of Economics; M.Res., Ph.D., London Business School

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About the Expert

Michael Lenox

University Professor Tayloe Murphy Professor of Business Administration

Lenox’s expertise is in the domain of technology strategy and policy. He studies the role of innovation in helping a business succeed. In particular, he explores the sourcing of external knowledge by firms and this practice’s impact on a company’s innovation strategy. Lenox has a longstanding interest in the interface between business strategy and public policy as it relates to the natural environment; his work explores firm strategies and nontraditional public policies that have the potential to drive green innovation and entrepreneurship.

In 2013, Lenox co-authored The Strategist’s Toolkit with Darden Professor Jared Harris. His latest book,

Lenox is a prolific author; his most recent book, Strategy in the Digital Age: Mastering Digital Transformation, examines how digital technologies and services enable the creation of innovative products and services, as well as identifying new competitive positions.

B.S., M.S., University of Virginia; Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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