Insights From

Global Economic Outlook

When Governments and the Global Economy Collide: What to Watch

Uncover key insights from Darden experts examining the rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape and how new policies and actions can and will impact the global economy.

Macron and French Resistance: Economic Growth and Labor Policy

Though French President Emmanuel Macron entered office with huge popularity, his attempts at long-term economic growth through labor reform were met with plummeting approval ratings and even yellow-vest protests. What will the country do to balance social protections vs. taxes?

Bad Medicine? The Side Effects of Central Bank Mispricing

Professor Tomio looks at how bond purchases by the European Central Bank created a large mispricing between the market for German and Italian government bonds and their respective futures contracts.

Mexico: Doors Needed, Not Walls

Mexico experiences a huge degree of socioeconomic inequality. With a new president, tensions with the U.S., and a new trade deal, will it be able to escape the middle-income trap? Can it grow, be socially progressive, and keep its reputation as business-friendly with global investors?

Crowded Out? Government Spending and the Private Sector

Resources are limited, and business and government compete for them … or so goes conventional wisdom and widespread economic theory. Does it hold up in the real world? Professor Dan Murphy’s research, presented at the IMF’s annual research conference, investigates government spending and its effect on the private sector.

Does Anyone Win in a US-China Trade War?

Darden Professor Dennis Yang and Chinese economist Dr. Ha Jiming examine the factors that could influence trade talks between China and the U.S. ahead of a critical deadline for a deal, and predict possible fallout for the global economy if a trade war escalates.

Considering Fed Actions in ‘Messy’ Times

As January draws to a close, the U.S economy finds itself in uncharted territory, with conventional measures of strength such as the low unemployment rate and increasing wage growth juxtaposed with a topsy-turvy stock market, its longest-ever government shutdown and a U.S. president openly pillorying actions of the Federal Reserve Board.

Amid Strong US Economy: 3 Threats?

Most economic crises fade quickly into blurry memories, but the same can’t be said of the mortgage meltdown and Great Recession of 2007–09. A decade later, three of Darden’s top economics and finance professors share their concerns of a repeat.

2018 Economic Forecast: Does Steady Growth Obscure a Shaky Foundation?

University of Virginia Darden School of Business Professor Alan Beckenstein sees a relatively strong U.S. economy, with darkening storm clouds on the horizon.