Who would be better at telling the future: An expert, or a group of nonexperts? The group of nonexperts could probably tell you.

Crowds make for surprisingly intelligent forecasters, particularly when composed of diverse individuals with independent perspectives. When their predictions are averaged, the result is more accurate than an expert’s. Darden Professor Yael Grushka-Cockayne discusses the wisdom of crowds and explains how a collection of opinions can forecast the future.

The BizBasics video series, created by the University of Virginia Darden School of Business, is designed to explain basic business concepts and common business buzz words.

Professor Grushka-Cockayne teaches in the Executive Education program Strategic Analysis and Decision-Making, which shows participants how to use predictive models and forecasting tools to break down the elements of decision-making and reduce uncertainty.

About the Expert

Yael Grushka-Cockayne

Senior Associate Dean for Professional Degree Programs; Altec Styslinger Foundation Bicentennial Professor of Business Administration

Grushka-Cockayne’s research and teaching activities focus on decision analysis, forecasting, project management and behavioral decision-making.

As an expert in the area of project management, she has served as a consultant to international firms in the aerospace and transportation industries. She is the secretary/treasurer of INFORMS Decision Analysis Society, a U.Va. Excellence in Diversity fellow and member the Project Management Institute.

B.Sc., Ben-Gurion University; M.Sc., London School of Economics; M.Res., Ph.D., London Business School